The Israel Turkey Alliance -
The two kings, with their hearts bent on evil, will sit at
the same table and lie to each other, but to no avail, because an end will still
come at the appointed time.(The Bible's definition of diplomacy, from
Today we're returning to an area of special interest to me. I
think watching prophecy being fulfilled in current events really brings the
Bible to life. It energizes our
faith and demonstrates the nearness of End Times events. Few if any recent
generations could sit with a Bible in one hand and their newspapers in the other
and see the fulfillment of prophecy, but for us it's almost routine.
Beginning the day after I posted part 1 of this commentary,
several developing stories revealed there's much more to the story.
First the world learned of joint training exercises Turkey has agreed to
hold with Syria. On Monday April 27,
Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak commented that Turkey's decision to
hold three days of military maneuvers with Syria is "disturbing."
Never before has an important NATO
power staged a joint exercise with any Arab army.
And that's not all. Turkish defense minister Vecdi Gonul
and his Syrian counterpart Hassan Turkmani have agreed to sign a letter of
intent for cooperation between their defense industries as well.
According to DEBKAfile's military sources, the signing and the exercise
are major signposts on the shrinking road of military and commercial ties
between Turkey and Israel.
Furthermore Ankara has begun defaulting on payments for
military purchases and other contracts with Israel, and is currently several
million dollars behind on defense contracts worth a total of $5 billion. For its
part, Israel has halted construction
on a new tank factory in Turkey and
is working to quickly shut down other exchanges to prevent the leakage of
military secrets to an avowed Arab enemy.
Conventional wisdom has long held that Turkey's
west-leaning secular army was the real power behind the government and only
tolerated the installation of Islamic leaders as long as they didn't try to rock
the boat. In the past they've shut
down political parties whose goals were perceived to be at odds with their
political strategy. (Turkey is a
NATO member and has undertaken extreme measures to be seen as a European
Country, trying for years to qualify for membership in the EU.)
Therefore Israel's defense and foreign ministries have maintained the
view that the presence of a pro-Islamic government in Ankara would not detract
from the long-held ties of cooperation and trust between Turkey and Israel.
DEBKAfile's intelligence sources report they've misread the
signals. The Turkish military is no longer the body it once was. The generals of
today are in harmony with Prime Minister Erdogan's decision to turn Turkey's
back on Israel and its face toward the Moslem world.
Washington's approval of all this underscores its new policy of building a
strong a military coalition between
Syria, Turkey and Lebanon. In part 1 I mentioned President Obama's OK for
Turkey to provide arms and training for the Lebanese army, a force which is
already largely subservient to Hizbullah and may come under its complete control
in the upcoming Lebanese elections.
According to Syrian sources, Turkey has tightened its relations with Syria
partly as a result of Israel's offensive on the Gaza Strip. They claim that
Turkey changed its attitude toward Israel following the three-week war and thus
decided to strengthen its military cooperation with Syria.
And now, Russian state arms export firm
Rosoboronexport has revealed that Russia is in talks with Turkey about selling
Ankara state-of-the-art S-400 air defense systems. Turkey is a traditional rival
of Russia, and has long bought many of its weapons from the United States. One
more sign of change.
Also, an article in the Jewish World
Review claims that having been buoyed by President Obama's warm embrace of
Turkey, PM Erdogan has moved to consolidate his place as a central pillar in a
new regional axis spearheaded by Iran, which also includes Syria, Lebanon and
the Palestinian Authority.
To that end, Turkey recently signed a
trade agreement with Iran aimed at doubling trade between the two countries
within five years and, again with US approval, agreed to allow Iranian gas
exports into Europe through the Nabucco gas pipeline which runs from Turkey to
Austria. Iran's access to the
pipeline will earn it billions of dollars in annual income and increase its
political power as Europe becomes more
dependent on Iranian gas. (And less dependent on Russia.)
A report by the Washington Institute indicates that Turkey is expected to break
with NATO on such issues as Iran's nuclear weapons program as well as its
proxies Hamas and Hizbullah. It said
Ankara has moved steadily away from its NATO allies and toward Iran, Russia and
Syria, and that Turkey's new foreign policy has come at the expense of Ankara's
relations with Israel, the European Union and the United States. "Ankara will
likely opt out of a NATO consensus on Iran, clash with the United States on how
to handle Hamas and Hizbullah, and disagree with the EU and the U.S. on Russia,"
the report concluded.
For the most part, this all fits very
well with Ezekiel's prophecy of a sneak attack on an unsuspecting Israel by
Russia and a coalition of Moslem countries.
Most commentators agree that Turkey has to be with the Moslem attackers
against Israel and not on the sidelines (like NATO for example).
Therefore it's been said that strategically, Turkey is the most important
country in the Middle East.
It Isn't Over Till It's Over
Baseball great Yogi Berra's popular
saying certainly is applicable here. Preparations for Ezekiel 38 are
still a long way from being complete.
As an example of how complicated these things are becoming, less than a
week after announcing their big break through in Turkey-Syria relations, Syria
left its new found friend to team up with Saudi Arabia and Egypt against the
ongoing Turkish effort to hammer out a peace agreement between Syria and Israel.
Iranian President Ahmadinejad abruptly
canceled a scheduled trip to South America, hurrying to
Damascus instead. According
to DEBKAfile's intelligence sources, one reason for his urgent visit
was to thwart the Saudi-Egyptian move to snatch the Syrian-Israeli peace
talks backed by Washington away from Turkey and relocate it in the Jordanian
But he was too late. Syrian president
Assad had already appointed one of his most trusted intelligence officers, Gen.
Bahjat Suleiman (the Syrian ambassador in Amman) to the position of heading his
government's side in prospective peace talks there.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia are solidly
backed by the Persian Gulf emirates as well as Jordan in the move to cut Turkish
PM Erdogan out and "Arabize" Middle East peacemaking. So Erdogan was left
holding an empty bag after he turned against Israel and lined up with Syria and
(The combined Arab step also dealt a
reverse to President Obama's Middle East plans.
Observers say he planned to use a substantially more forceful approach
toward Israel as a bargaining chip in his Middle East strategy.
Strengthening Syria, Turkey and Lebanon was part of the plan to force
Israel's compliance. He also hoped
he could entice Iran into helping with the mess in Pakistan and Afghanistan by
showing he was being tough on Israel while opening a dialog with Tehran.
At the same time he warned Israel that unless they get back in line
behind the 2 state solution with the Palestinians, they couldn't expect any help
curtailing Iran's nuclear aspirations.)
You see, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the
Persian Gulf Emirates and Jordan are all members of the Arab League.
Turkey and Iran, although Moslem, are not members and are not considered
Arabic countries. The Arabic
countries of the Middle East are deathly afraid of Iran.
They also suspect that Turkey's Erdogan has visions of re-creating the
Ottoman Empire (of which several of their countries were once part) with him at
President Obama's recently begun dialog
with these two non-Arab countries has left them feeling very insecure, so much
so that two high ranking US diplomatic missions, the first headed by Asst. Sec'y
of State Dennis Ross and the second by Sec'y of Defense Robert Gates, were
hastily dispatched to the region to reassure them.
Apparently they weren't successful because Arab leaders were still upset
when a 3rd US delegation showed up unannounced to suggest that they
should invest several hundred billion dollars in the US economic recovery plan.
The delegation came away empty handed
and the Arabs are still angry, warning that any further US gestures
towards those two radical regimes would place US ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt
and the Gulf in grave jeopardy.
In response to all this
Pres. Obama, in a sharp reversal, has decided to punish Syria for
abandoning Turkey by asking the Congress to re-impose sanctions.
He's also backed away from his flirtation with Tehran and Damascus, and
has scheduled a second major speech to the Arab/Moslem world, this time from
Cairo. (This may be due in part to
the fact that he really needs the Arab money.
The delegation was instructed to tell the Arabs that Fed chairman
Bernanke's recent optimistic report on the US economy's impending recovery was
anyone who thinks he or she sees a straight line from here to Ezekiel
38 simply doesn't understand the dynamics. Since the 1970's otherwise
competent observers have been saying that Ezekiel 38 is right around the
corner and indeed the world has come close several times.
But always at the last moment someone or something has intervened to
cause a delay because all the pieces are not yet in place.
For example, the disposition of Israel's next door neighbors,
Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the PLO
must still be determined, because all are missing from Ezekiel's list of
attackers. And Israel has to come up
with the treasure sufficient to motivate Russia's participation while being
lulled by a perception of peace into thinking they're safe from attack. (Ezek
Even so, breaking the Israel-Turkey
alliance is a major step in bring the moslem coalition of Ezekiel 38
together. You can almost hear the
footsteps of the Messiah. 05-09-09